The perfect storm for Labour

Ed Miliband had probably other things in mind when he cheered the arrival of 2012. So far the New Year brought nothing but bad news for him. First, Liam Byrne declares that the government's reform of housing benefit may have some merits (read his Guardian article HERE). Then Lord Glasman, a Labour peer and former (occasional) advisor to the Labour leader, says Miliband lacks a narrative and a strategy (you can read it HERE). Finally, even the Guardian abandons its strict loyalty to the Labour message of ‘no cuts’ and questions the credibility of Labour’s long term budgetary policy in several articles. 

While some of Miliband’s supporters try their best to shield the party leader who looks more beleaguered by the day, the real challenge is still in the offing. So far, as the deputy editor from the New Statesman pointed out in a Newnight piece, Ed Balls’ strategy of accusing the government to cut ‘too deep and too fast’ has been the main message. The problem is that Balls’ strategy was predicated on the Darling deficit reduction plan to work, which anticipated to cut half the deficit in four years (to 2015) and too eliminate it by 2019. 

Yet the Darling plan is as dead in the water as any financial projection could ever be that is about two years old. In December, the government announced that, given the threat of another global economic slowdown, the government’s stricter deficit reduction plan has to be revised to, wait for it, a reduction plan that is slower even than Darling’s plan. 

Which means that Labour has lost the wobbly flagpole it wanted to peg its budget plans to. With Darling’s plan gone, it has little to build its economic credibility on. Which brings us back to Ed Miliband and his critics. He is now in an even tighter spot than last year. With no deficit reduction plan and a shadow chancellor determined to ‘spend, spend, spend’, Labour gets ever further from re-gaining some traction with the public in the economic debate. The real challenge however still awaits Miliband and his team. There seems to be a consensus emerging that the discussion around ‘how deep to cut’ is nothing more than a sideshow. 

The more pressing question is how to structure public services in times of lasting austerity. There is no tool in the shadow chancellor’s toolbox that could match tight fiscal conditions. Balls is a Brownite; his understanding of economics is one formed in times of plenty: plenty of tax revenues equals plenty to distribute. This mismatch between Balls’ perspective and the reality of austerity for the next decade spells disaster for the Labour leader. If Miliband does not push Balls to accept the basic parameters of austerity, he will struggle to open up the debate on the things that really matter: how to organise public services more efficiently to prepare them for austere times. 2012 just may be the year the Labour leader encounters the perfect storm. It all depends on his leadership if the Labour ship sinks or stays afloat.

Polly Toynbee in overdrive

Polly Toynbee is back! Presumably she just couldn't bear the bad news arriving at her posh Italian villa from the shores of these green islands and so she had to cut her holiday short to write a piece that is riddled with class war terminology.

(You can read it HERE: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/29/osborne-class-war-autumn-statement)

While she clearly pleased many of her supporters on the Guardian website with her comments, the Labour Party will lose in the long term if it thinks this immoderate language serves it well. The reason why Labour should tread carefully is simple. Osborne's autumn statement set out a series of factors that makes it impossible to eliminate the budget deficit by the next election. Toynbee is furious that this means more pain for everyone. Yet, what she fails to mention is that the government's plans to balance the books are now almost identical to the one by Labour. In fact, borrowing will be even higher now than under the Darling Plan, given the difficult economic circumstances for the next couple of years.

In essence, Toynbee therefore already got what she wanted: higher borrowing which will be spent on infrastructure projects up and down the country. So, why does she think this is class warfare when it is exactly what she called for only weeks ago?

The conclusion can only be that as Labour's plans to revive the economy and the government's budget are getting more similar, Labour is running out of the ability to portray itself as radically different from the coalition. Hence the shrill sounds from Ed Balls and Toynbee. Toynbee thinks there is only one way to go now: further to the left. For the moment, Darling's plan is still Labour policy. We will see over the next couple of weeks if the Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor stay in the middle of the road.

Why Miliband still does not cut it

Polly Toynbee, the celebrated Guardian columnist, is off to write a book. Her contributions in the Guardian will be sourly missed, especially by Ed Miliband, the leader of the opposition. Toynbee is one of his most vocal, and increasingly few supporters in the media. 

After another shaky performance at the dispatch box this Wednesday (9 November), observers were unanimous in their criticism of the Labour leader. He is good at PMQ when he can wrongfoot Cameron with questions about intricate policy details such as how many businesses have so far been supported by the Business Support Scheme of the government. But these are easy wins. Since Cameron does not know where Milliband will go, questions about detail may temporarily show the prime minister as less informed than he should be. 

However, the public knows the rules of the game and will eventually see through this strategy of scoring with questions on minutiae of policy. What Miliband has still failed to do is to hit home on the general policy front. And how could he? The Labour Party is still stuck in an endless policy review process which so far has produced little. It leaves Miliband appearing non-committal on many issues, apart from matters emerging from the tussle of daily politics, or current affairs such as the hacking scandal, that dominate public debate and gain large media coverage for a brief period of time. 

The upshot of this narrowing of options for Miliband is that he often looks like somebody jumping on a bandwagon rather than somebody defining public debate. The opinion polls provide ample testimony for this impression of a leader tossed about by whatever daily politics throws his way. Eighteen months into the coalition government, the polls see Labour and the Conservatives within the margin of error (2 per cent). For a mid-term blues, a debt crisis at our shores and anemic growth rates, this is good news for the coalition. In other words, Miliband and the Labour Party still thoroughly fail to capitalise on the troubles of the government. 

His performance at the dispatch box does not improve his chances to be the next Labour prime minister. His body movements are awkward, often unnecessarily overwrought and displaying anxiety rather than manifesting calm and confidence. Sitting on the bench and listening to Yvette Cooper during the recent grilling of Theresa May, his demeanor was painful to watch, more akin to a 9th grader struggling to keep up with the debate. 

Much of this of course has little to do with his ability to become prime minister. Presentational issues beset other prime ministers too, such as Gordon Brown. However one cant help wondering if the way he speaks and presents himself is actually a true exposition of his inner lack of confidence, a nagging doubt he himself habours about his qualification for the most powerful job in the country. If it is, he will have to conquer his own demons very soon, or he wont make it to the other side of the chamber, with or without the help of Polly Toynbee.